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The 92nd annual Academy Awards are almost upon us!
Hosted by Kevin Hart absolutely no one still, the long-running awards ceremony emanates from the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles. It’s got a pretty cool looking line up of presenters including Taika Waititi, Chris Rock, Tom Hanks, Sandra Oh and Natalie Portman. Plus a musical performance from Janelle Monae! (watch Hidden Figures if you haven’t yet, she’s great)
This year actually has a pretty respectable line up of nominees. I’m pleased to see the likes of Parasite, Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood and 1917 receive so many nominations. They are all excellent films. For the first time in ages I don’t think any outright stinker has been nominated as has been the case in years past (*cough* Crash *cough* Chicago).
But there are still plenty of other amazing films that got overlooked. If you’ll indulge me, some of the best films of 2019 not getting a run during the awards season include Uncut Gems, The Nightingale and Midsommar. Also you should know that Cats isn’t as bad as they say and its genuinely worth a watch for how impressively weird it is.
Anyway, with that said, here are my predictions for the 92nd Academy Awards.
Predictions
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: Ford vs Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, Parasite
Who Should Win
Real talk: if we’re talking about the Best Picture of 2019, it’s Parasite by a country mile and we all know it. It is a fabulous film, very topical and has reached an audience far wider than anyone could’ve anticipated based on incredible word of mouth.
It speaks to how much frustration has been built up in recent years over the Academy’s relentlessly myopic decision making that instead of being happy with one of the best selection of nominees we’ve had in years (Taika and Greta’s films are in the mix!), we’re mostly stewing because we know that some decrepit old Academy voters are gonna screw up a sure thing and somehow not give this award to Parasite.
For what its worth, I think its a shame this category didn’t include Uncut Gems or The Nightingale which I would’ve gladly punted Ford vs Ferrari and Marriage Story for.
Parasite
Who Will Win
The Academy loves World War II movies and movies about Hollywood itself. But judging by the results at other award ceremonies in the lead up to the Oscars, it’s clear that its a one horse race and this thing is going to Sam Mendes’ 1917.
For what its worth, 1917 is excellent and of all the films I’ve seen that have done the ‘single cut’ gimmick (Rope, Russian Ark, Birdman), 1917 is my favourite of the bunch. As good as it is though, I don’t think a film with two characters, maybe ten pages of dialogue and a production so single mindedly focused on being technically accomplished should win this. But it will. I’m sure of it.
1917
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Todd Phillips (Joker), Sam Mendes (1917), Once Upon A Time…In Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino), Parasite (Bong Joon Ho)
Who Should Win
A sentimental part of me would be happy to see Martin Scorsese win this one for his send-off film The Irishman which I can’t really see being in any position to win any other major award on the night. I’m largely indifferent to the idea of Tarantino or Phillips winning this. No prize for guessing who I think should win this one.
If you didn’t vote Bong, then you got it wrong.
Bong Joon Ho
Who Will Win
Pretty straight forward really. Best Picture and Best Director generally go hand in hand. If there was even a remote chance that Bong Joon Ho had at winning this award he probably extinguished it when he was asked about his hopes for winning an Oscar to which he expressed indifference and hilariously described the Academy Awards as being ‘very local’.
1917 gets Best Picture and that means Sam Mendes gets his second Best Director Oscar. Probably a good thing because I don’t think anyone is rushing to put Kevin Spacey from American Beauty in any of the montages or highlight reels.
Sam Mendes
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo Di Caprio (Once Upon A Time…in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Jonathan Pryce (Two Popes)
Who Should Win
It kills me that I haven’t been able to watch Pain and Glory which had a very limited theatrical run in Australia during a crowded November/December period so I can’t comment on Banderas’ performance which I have been reliably informed is excellent.
One of my favourite performances this year came from Leonardo Di Caprio in Once Upon A Time…in Hollywood. He delivered a fine performance as Rick Dalton, a small-time Hollywood actor riddled with insecurities about his age and his struggles transitioning from television to the silver screen. In a stacked field of fine performances, I think his was the one I enjoyed the most.
…but I don’t think he should win. If Joaquin Phoenix serves up a repeat performance of his Best Actor BAFTA speech where he took to the stage and blasted the voters for their shitty white-washed attitudes towards awards ceremonies then he deserves this opportunity. Ideally he’ll shout at the Academy for overlooking BlackKklansmen last year and then hand the award personally to Song Kang-Ho.
Joaquin Phoenix
Who Will Win
It’s the most sure bet of the whole night. Put every dollar you have on Phoenix winning this one.
My only reservation I have about Joker winning anything at all is the genesis of the film came from director Todd Phillips “quitting comedy” because he blamed “political correctness gone mad” for The Hangover 3 being critically panned and under-performing at the box office. That’s what the Joker character is. An outlet for someone mad about Hangover 3.
Joaquin Phoenix
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Cynthia Eviro (Harriet), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Who Should Win
I have seen a grand total of one of these performances. It remains incredibly difficult in Australia to see female-lead award season films as they get very limited releases in this country and often arrive after the awards themselves have finished. Hopefully in future years we see more of these types of productions coming to Netflix in a timely fashion the way Roma, Uncut Gems and Two Popes have. I’m not even sure if Judy or Harriet have screened in Australia yet?
So I’m in no position to say who I think should win.
As a side note, Ronan is only 25 and has had four Academy Award nominations. Crazy. Could rival Meryl Streep one day at her current rate.
Don’t Know
Who Will Win
It would be very on-brand for the Academy to be asked to rate films about African American abolitionist and political activist Harriet Tubman and a wealthy, racist Fox News presenter and give it to the latter.
But I think you have to invoke the rule that the Academy loves movies about Hollywood more than anything else so I think Renee Zellweger takes this one.
Renee Zellweger
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Brad Pitt (Once Upon A Time…in Hollywood), Anthony Hopkins (Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood)
Who Should Win
I don’t know if we’ll ever see a more stacked list of legendary actors than this year’s Best Supporting Actor category. Just look at the talent on that list.
I haven’t seen A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood (sorry Tom), but out of the rest of the performances I think it would great to see Pacino get the nod for the substantial work he does in The Irishman as union kingpin Jimmy Hoffa.
But to be honest I can’t really begrudge any of these guys getting the nod. No one undeserving on this list and no glaring omissions that I can recall from the year.
Al Pacino
Who Will Win
I half-wonder if they’ll give this to Hopkins as a sort of unofficial Lifetime Achievement award. I wouldn’t be against it as the dude is no spring chicken at 82 years young.
But looking at the form guide, I believe Brad Pitt is the bookie’s choice for his role as stuntman Cliff Booth. I’d be happy with that.
Brad Pitt
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Who Should Win
I don’t know about you but in my mind, there wasn’t a more memorable performance in 2019 than Florence goddamn Pugh tearing up the screen as the fierce, independent, take-no-nonsense heroine Dani Ardor in Ari Aster’s folk-horror Midsommar. Looking back, she really put in the work in 2019, acting not only as the May Queen but also as a professional wrestler (Fighting My Family) in the WWE.
Since the Academy steadfastly refuses to recognise award-worthy horror movie performances (*cough* Toni Collette *cough* Lupita N’uongo), I’d be happy for Pugh to unofficially win one tangentially through Little Women.
Florence Pugh
Who Will Win
I am told Laura Dern will win this and that is fine because Laura Dern absolutely rules.
Laura Dern
QUICK PICKS
Original Screenplay
“Knives Out,” Rian Johnson
“Marriage Story,” Noah Baumbach
“1917,” Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Quentin Tarantino
“Parasite,” Bong Joon-ho, Jin Won Han
Adapted Screenplay
“The Irishman,” Steven Zaillian
“Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi
“Joker,” Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
“Little Women,” Greta Gerwig
“The Two Popes,” Anthony McCarten
Cinematography
“The Irishman,” Rodrigo Prieto
“Joker,” Lawrence Sher
“The Lighthouse,” Jarin Blaschke
“1917,” Roger Deakins
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Robert Richardson
International Feature Film
“Corpus Christi,” Jan Komasa
“Honeyland,” Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov
“Les Miserables,” Ladj Ly
“Pain and Glory,” Pedro Almodovar
“Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho
Editing
“Ford v Ferrari,” Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland
“The Irishman,” Thelma Schoonmaker
“Jojo Rabbit,” Tom Eagles
“Joker,” Jeff Groth
“Parasite,” Jinmo Yang
Original Score
“Joker,” Hildur Guðnadóttir
“Little Women,” Alexandre Desplat
“Marriage Story,” Randy Newman
“1917,” Thomas Newman
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” John Williams
Visual Effects
“Avengers Endgame”
“The Irishman”
“1917”
“The Lion King”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
Costume Design
”The Irishman,” Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson
“Jojo Rabbit,” Mayes C. Rubeo
“Joker,” Mark Bridges
“Little Women,” Jacqueline Durran
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Arianne Phillips
Animated Feature
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World,” Dean DeBlois
“I Lost My Body,” Jeremy Clapin
“Klaus,” Sergio Pablos
“Missing Link,” Chris Butler
“Toy Story 4,” Josh Cooley
Reviews
Archives
91st Academy Awards (2019) | 90th Academy Awards (2018) | 89th Academy Awards (2017) | 88th Academy Awards (2016) | 87th Academy Awards (2015) | 86th Academy Awards (2014) | 85th Academy Awards (2013) | 84th Academy Awards (2012) | 83rd Academy Awards (2011)
